Who Will Be Obama's VP

On the eve of the Washington State County caucuses, to which I am a Clinton delegate, I am spending more time thinking about whom will be Senator Obama's VP nominee, rather than how Hillary can pull a rabbit out of the hat. The Obama v. Clinton debate on this site -- and the Washington Post and NY Times -- has been more than strident. At times it has been hateful. I think it is time for political junkies to dial it down and engage in less destructive discussion. One topic that might produce such a discussion is who will be Senator Obama's vice-presidential nominee. Below I'll describe the top five candidates, IMHO, and why.

For full disclosure, my 18 and 20 year old son and daughter are elected Obama delegates, and yes, I still think Senator Clinton would make the better president this time around. But I also think the group of pundits, describing Senator Clinton as a long shot, is correct. She may win key late states and go into the convention with momentum, but she is highly unlikely to successfully snatch the nomination. I also think ice cubes have a better chance in hell than Senator Clinton has of being tapped as Senator Obama's VP.

So what does Obama need in a VP? Executive experience from a swing state might be the key experiential criteria. The benefits are obvious. Turn a purple state bright blue and mitigate the criticism that Obama has no executive experience. International relations, military leadership, or national security might also play an important role in his decision.

Demographically the options seem clear. A woman would mollify some Clinton supporters. The traditional democratic conservative "white guy" might be the smart play to reassure the old guard the administration will be in the mainstream. And then Obama might roll the dice with an Hispanic, to span a gap in the democratic base. So who are the top five that best match up to the requirements for resume, demographic appeal, and as always, geographic or Electoral College math?

On electoral math here is a brief excerpt from the Washington Post (2-23-08), "Can Obama Turn Red States Blue".

"Of the 24 states Obama has won, 14 were carried by Bush in the 2004 general election. Bush won 55 percent or less of the vote in four of those states (Colorado, Iowa, Missouri and Virginia), while he took better than 60 percent of the vote in seven (Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota and Utah)."

"Of the 14 red states Obama has won in this nominating contest, half of them haven't voted for a Democrat for president in a general election in more than 40 years. Lyndon Johnson in the 1964 campaign was the last Democrat who won Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota, Utah and Virginia. Meanwhile, five states have backed a Democratic presidential candidate sometime in the past 20 years: Colorado (1992), Georgia (1992), Missouri (1996), Louisiana (1996) and Iowa (2000)..."

"It's obvious that a handful of red states -- Colorado, Iowa, Missouri, Virginia -- are almost certain to be competitive whether Obama or Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) is the Democratic nominee. The demographics in those states have shifted toward Democrats of late, and the party made gains in each in 2006."

With that, here are my current picks.

Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico

A swing state governor with strong mainstream appeal and the added appeal of being half Hispanic. He has a strong connection with Hispanic voters but in a way that doesn't wave red flags to mid-west and northeast white males, much like Obama along different racial lines. He also has proven himself an amiable campaigner, often calling for civility when Edwards, Clinton, and Obama went after each other in early debates. His 2008 presidential effort also lets him start the race with name recognition and excellent press familiarity.

He has a stellar international relations resume as the former Ambassador to the United Nations. And in an election cycle where gasoline prices and renewable energy will be important domestic issues, he was Secretary of Energy.

Biggest negative: Non-Hispanic Clinton supporters will not warm to him. The key resume items that transformed Richardson from an honorable but defeated multi-term House Member into a national player who won a governorship, were courtesy of President Bill Clinton. Staying silent would have been viewed by the Clinton camp as a regrettable but tolerable snub. Openly endorsing Obama, after his Iowa gambit of telling his supporters to back Obama if he could not win delegates, was infuriating.

Gov. Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas

She was an early Obama supporter and active campaigner who proved her ability to work across party lines with Republicans. She was fairly conservative on taxes, as required with a Republican legislature in Kansas. And she vetoed an expansion of coal-fired power plants. She was named one of the top five current governors by Time Magazine (11-13-2005). She could do much to appeal to female voters drawn more to the historic appeal of Clinton than the historic appeal of Obama.

Biggest negative: She may not be close to flipping Kansas from red to blue on the presidential level, and she does not have a broad national identity. Her appeal to the female Democratic base would unify the party but might not do more than equal general Electoral College math.

Gov. Bill Ritter, Jr. of Colorado

He is the host governor for this year's Democratic Convention, to be held in Denver. This gives him every reason, and the perfect cover, to remain neutral in the presidential race until all the votes are counted. The Convention will boost his national name recognition. Colorado is a western swing state and he is popular in rural Colorado, which might ensure a Democratic win. He and his wife served as Catholic missionaries, a resume item that might help with values voters.

Biggest negative: As US attorney his office plea-bargained about 97% of cases, which is near the top of the charts. Opposition to stricter immigration regulation is offset by McCain's own positions.

Former Gov. Mark R. Warner of Virginia

As far as I can determine Warner has remained neutral in the presidential race. At one point he was expected to run himself. He was a popular governor of a state gradually moving from red to blue, but still up for grabs. He also headed the State's Democratic party. He managed Douglas Wilder's successful gubernatorial campaign, which makes him the "traditional white guy" with great credibility with African-American voters. He was a centrist in a conservative state, which offers some balance. He worked on Senator Dodd's staff many years ago giving him strong ties to the mainstream of the party.

Biggest negative: He may be too committed to running for the Senate to consider the VP spot or the Virginia Democratic Party may not have another viable Senatorial candidate option.

Gov. Janet Napolitano of Arizona

Another governor of a western swing state who supported Senator Obama early on. Unfortunately her senior home state US Senator is top of the ticket on the other side. Napolitano was named one of the top five governors by Time Magazine (11-13-2005). She is a fighter. She has issued more vetoes than any Arizona governor. She survived cancer. She won universal kindergarten with a Republican dominated legislature. And after a very close win for her fist term, she easily won election to her second term as governor.

Biggest negative: She is from the same state as Senator McCain so it is unclear who can deliver the state. She has had a raucous immigration debate, but so has McCain.

Long shots

Here are two very long shots, which I think are interesting. Both are Clinton supporters. How about bridging the two camps by picking a Clinton supporter rather than Hillary herself?

General Wesley Clark

As a former supreme commander of NATO, a respected Democratic presidential candidate four years ago, and a Clinton supporter, this might be an interesting move. Clark has proven himself as a campaigner, a strong advocate against Bush's mid-east strategy, and he has impeccable national security credentials. He also begins the game with national name recognition. And he might bridge the two camps. But can the Obama staff ever trust anyone that supported Hillary?

Gov. Edward Rendell of Pennsylvania

Rendell is another Clinton supporter and possibly more strident than Clark. But his critique of Obama was backhanded at best. As former chair of the Democratic National Committee and a popular governor of a must-win Democratic state, this might be the ultimate Obama-Clinton bridge. In a NY Times story on 2-25-08 he noted that governors have executive experience similar to what a president needs. But he also noted that few governors, other then Bill Richardson of New Mexico, has foreign policy experience.

Perhaps we end where we began.

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